What-If Scenarios: How to Model a Business Decision Before Committing

A what-if model does not predict the future. It shows how a decision behaves under a few plausible outcomes, so you can see in advance which outcome you could not live with.

The easiest way to show the method is one decision, worked through completely. Everything below is an illustration with invented figures, not a typical result or a recommendation.

The decision

A freelance developer has more work offered than they can deliver. They consider a part-time subcontractor at EUR 2,200 a month, who would let them bill EUR 3,000 a month more if the extra capacity were fully used.

Step 1: write the assumptions down

All amounts exclude VAT. Income tax and social contributions on any extra margin are not in this model; if the decision is close, add them before deciding.

The payment delay matters more than it looks. The subcontractor is paid from the first month, but the extra income only arrives from the third.

Step 2: pick the outcomes to compare

Full utilisation is the optimistic case, not the plan. Compare three:

• Baseline: no subcontractor.
• Likely: the extra capacity is 75% used, so EUR 2,250 a month extra billing.
• Downside: 45% used, so EUR 1,350 a month.

Step 3: run the months

Cash at the end of each month:

How the columns are built: baseline adds EUR 2,500 a month (9,000 in, 6,500 out). With the subcontractor, months 1 and 2 add only EUR 300 (2,500 minus 2,200). From month 3 the extra billing arrives: EUR 2,550 a month in the likely case, EUR 1,650 in the downside case.

Step 4: read the result

Three things come out of the table.

The break-even point is 73% utilisation. EUR 2,200 of cost divided by EUR 3,000 of possible billing. Below that, the subcontractor costs more than they bring in, every month.

Once the extra income flows, the likely case is barely better than not hiring. From month 3 the likely case adds EUR 2,550 a month against the baseline's EUR 2,500: EUR 50 a month more, after two months of paying for capacity that has not yet been paid for. Six months in, it is still EUR 4,200 behind the baseline.

The downside does not threaten the business, but it costs money. At 45% the business adds EUR 850 a month less than without the subcontractor. Cash stays above the minimum in all three cases: with the subcontractor, three months of costs is EUR 26,100, and the lowest point is EUR 28,300 in month 1.

Step 5: turn it into a decision

The model does not say yes or no. It changes the question. The question is no longer "can I afford a subcontractor?" but "can I keep them above 73% busy?".

In this example, a reasonable reading is:

• Hire only with work already agreed that fills most of the capacity, not on expected demand.
• Agree a short initial term, so the downside case can be stopped after two or three months.
• Review actual utilisation and payment dates at the end of month 2, before the commitment grows.

Keep the model honest

• Use the dates you are actually paid, not your payment terms. If clients take 47 days, model 47.
• Model a range, never one number. A single optimistic figure hides the case you need to see.
• Include what leaves the account anyway: VAT, social contributions, tax prepayments. The cash-flow calendar lists the 2026 dates.
• Rerun it when a figure moves. A model you open only in a crisis describes the crisis.

Where Dokus fits

Dokus keeps the facts this kind of model starts from: invoices issued, what has been paid and when, and what is due. You can see your current position today on every plan.

Running what-if scenarios inside Dokus is part of Dokus Foresight, which is not available yet. It is on a waitlist, with no date, and is listed on the pricing page. Until then, a spreadsheet built as above does the job.